Russia’s share of India’s crude oil imports by value reached a record 48.6 percent in June 2026, up from just 2.8 percent in February 2022, according to trade data covered by The Hindu. India imported 8.7 million metric tonnes of crude from Russia that month, even as Russia’s price discount on that crude narrowed sharply, from 77.7 dollars per tonne in April 2026 to just 10.6 dollars per tonne by June, according to analysis compiled by UnderStand UPSC.
That narrowing discount is a direct consequence of intensifying US pressure. The US Senate has passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, which could allow tariffs of up to 100 percent on countries among the top five importers of Russian oil and gas, a category India sits firmly inside. This explainer covers how secondary sanctions work, what they have already cost Indian refiners, and what it could mean for pump prices.
Why Russian Oil Became So Central to India’s Imports
India’s dependence on Russian crude grew from almost nothing before 2022 to nearly half its import bill by value in 2026, driven by steep discounts Moscow offered after Western sanctions cut off its traditional European buyers. Indian refiners, led by Reliance Industries with a term supply deal for up to 500,000 barrels per day from Rosneft, built their sourcing strategy around that price advantage, importing roughly 1.7 to 1.9 million barrels per day of Russian crude through 2025 and into 2026.
That advantage is eroding. As the discount narrows toward parity with other crude grades, the primary economic rationale for continuing to buy Russian oil at scale weakens, even before accounting for the sanctions risk attached to the trade itself.
How US Secondary Sanctions Are Squeezing Indian Refiners
The pressure did not arrive all at once. In November 2025, US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil put roughly 3.1 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports at risk, nearly half the country’s total shipments, with a compliance wind-down period set for 21 November 2025. On 27 August 2025, the US had already imposed a 25 percent duty on India’s Russian oil purchases on top of existing 25 percent reciprocal tariffs, a combined 50 percent burden on the trade.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace found that these US sanctions triggered an 8 percent increase in global Brent crude prices, a jump projected to add 6 to 7 billion dollars to India’s annual oil import expenditure. Indian refining operational costs are expected to rise by approximately 2 percent as a direct result. Reliance Industries responded by cutting orders from sanctioned Russian companies by 13 percent in October 2025, while raising its Saudi Arabian imports to 87 percent and Iraqi imports to 31 percent of its diversified sourcing mix.
India’s Buffer Against Supply Shocks
India is not without cushioning. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has confirmed the country holds approximately 60 days of crude oil and liquefied natural gas reserves, plus 45 days of liquefied petroleum gas stockpiles, buffers built specifically to absorb exactly this kind of geopolitical disruption. Analysts at Discovery Alert describe the most probable near-term scenario as a managed, gradual transition rather than an abrupt shock, with Russian crude flows to India continuing at roughly 1.9 million barrels per day even as US enforcement pressure builds.
The lowest-probability but highest-impact scenario involves active US secondary sanctions enforcement specifically targeting Indian entities, which would force a rapid and involuntary supply shift rather than the gradual diversification currently underway.
What It Means for Fuel Prices at the Pump
The inflationary pass-through risk from higher crude costs is not marginal in a country with nearly 1.4 billion energy consumers. Brent crude prices in mid-2026 were trading more than 50 percent above pre-war benchmarks, reflecting the accumulated impact of supply disruptions and sanctions regimes layered across the global energy market. Any forced transition away from discounted Russian crude toward full-price alternatives from the Middle East, Africa or the United States would add a further cost premium on top of an already elevated base price, with the structural effect landing on downstream fuel pricing and refining margins over time rather than in a single dramatic spike.
FAQs: Russian Oil Sanctions and India Questions
How much Russian oil does India import in 2026?
India imported 8.7 million metric tonnes of crude oil from Russia in June 2026, representing a record 48.6 percent of India’s total crude import bill by value. This is a sharp rise from just 2.8 percent in February 2022, before Russia began offering steep discounts following Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine.
What are US secondary sanctions on Russian oil?
US secondary sanctions on Russian oil are penalties applied to third countries or companies that continue purchasing Russian crude, rather than sanctions on Russia directly. The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 could allow tariffs of up to 100 percent on countries among the top five importers of Russian oil and gas, a category that includes India.
Will Russian oil sanctions raise fuel prices in India?
Russian oil sanctions are likely to raise fuel prices in India gradually rather than immediately. The Carnegie Endowment found that US sanctions already triggered an 8 percent rise in global Brent crude prices, projected to add 6 to 7 billion dollars to India’s annual oil import expenditure and raise Indian refining costs by approximately 2 percent, with downstream pressure on pump prices building over time.
How much crude oil reserves does India have?
India holds approximately 60 days of crude oil and liquefied natural gas reserves, plus 45 days of liquefied petroleum gas stockpiles, according to Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. These strategic buffers are designed to help India absorb supply disruptions from sanctions or geopolitical shocks without immediate impact on domestic fuel availability.
Why is Russia’s oil discount to India narrowing?
Russia’s oil discount to India is narrowing because of tightening global supply, intensifying US secondary sanctions pressure, and increased competition from other Asian buyers now bidding for the same limited pool of Russian seaborne crude. The discount fell from 77.7 dollars per tonne in April 2026 to just 10.6 dollars per tonne by June 2026, sharply reducing the price advantage that made Russian crude attractive.
How are Indian refiners responding to sanctions risk?
Indian refiners are diversifying their crude sourcing to reduce sanctions exposure. Reliance Industries cut orders from sanctioned Russian companies by 13 percent in October 2025 while raising imports from Saudi Arabia to 87 percent and Iraq to 31 percent of its portfolio. Indian refiners overall are structurally equipped to manage the transition given the country’s 60-day reserve buffer and access to multiple alternative suppliers.